China’s new-car market is the raging, coal-burning fire nobody wants put out. Last year, more than 15 million passenger cars were sold in China, marking the fourth-consecutive year that the U.S. has played second fiddle. But in a sudden twinge of environmental angst, China itself wants to snuff the flames. According to local state-run media reports and the state-run China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, eight Chinese cities want to limit the number of new vehicle registrations to curb air pollution and traffic. That’s in addition to similar restrictions in four other major cities, including Beijing, that have left millions of would-be car owners begging to be picked in license plate lotteries.
But like China’s notorious “One Child” policy and crushing internet censorship, heavy-handed laws have a way of not working to their desired effects. And with state officials predicting an annual drop of 400,000 new car sales, or roughly two percent of the entire market, automakers can mop their brows and continue to churn out comfortable, ridiculous profits. Instead, like in most developing countries, China’s emerging middle class will be saddled with an unnecessary burden that won’t actually do anything to clear its dirty skies.
On the surface, there’s some merit. Chinese cities pack some of the world’s most-congested, smog-filled roadways in the entire world. In 2010, Chinese drivers trying to enter Beijing suffered a 74-mile-long traffic jam that lasted 11 days. In Beijing alone, the number of registered vehicles has risen by more than 2 million since 2008, when the city tried a desperate, last-minute shuffle to clear the air for the Olympics. Since then, Beijing has continued to restrict rush-hour driving based on a schedule that rotates every 13 weeks. But while city officials have claimed success—thanks to air-quality stations conveniently located outside urban areas—Beijing is still a choking hazard.
It’s been no different in Mexico City, where the Hoy No Circula program has been running since 1989, banning certain cars from the roads all day, depending on the last colored number of the license plate. Try driving in Mexico City, a valley teeming with 20 million people surrounded by mountains, and you’ll wonder why the air recirculation switch on your A/C isn’t working. The constant stench of fumes and the thick swell of fog—not to mention that you’re barely moving—is an asthma-inducing nightmare, even now that the city’s ancient Volkswagen Beetle taxis are being banned. Los Angeles, a similar valley that once stewed in its own clouds, figured this out in 1970 with the passing of the Clean Air Act. Since then, California’s hardline approach to emissions laws—at times unreasonable and unfair—actually have worked. Traffic is still hell in L.A., but at least you can lower the windows.
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However, no one in L.A. would agree to give up a car, not even now. And so far, no study has proven a significant reduction in air pollution by restricting cars from operating. According to models from the University of California-Davis that looked at similar laws in Bogota, Colombia, and São Paolo, Brazil, people often drive more during unrestricted times to overcompensate for the other times they can’t drive. That net effect, combined with unregulated pollution from factories, strings of heavy commercial vehicles, lax emissions laws, antiquated road networks, and loopholes that let drivers run around with a second car, mean that long-term pollution reduction never happens. In South Africa, for example, all the old Toyota taxis and other jalopies on the road negate much of the emissions savings from drivers lucky enough to buy a new BMW 320d with particulate filters.
The real problem, be it in China or Colombia, is that it’s too expensive to overhaul and enforce a national environmental code. And beyond the “greenwashing” announcements from China’s auto lobby, there is zero incentive to make any serious changes. Automakers and every other big business connected to the Chinese government want to make money without facing consequences. Average, working-class citizens want cars to celebrate success and gain freedom. Until China adopts a plan that affects the entire country’s energy consumption—not just that from new cars—drivers will be inhaling noxious gases for decades to come.
Source: CarAndDriver
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